Torres, Kim, Walker, Santander, Hernandez, and O'Neill: Using LASR to Analyze the Top Free Agent Hitters, Part 2

Last time on High and Outside, I introduced my Advanced LASR Hitter Stats and simultaneously profiled the top 4 hitters on the free agent market. That post was a follow-up to the debut of my overall LASR project, which places all stats on the same 20-80 scouting scale. And now, for the first time in High and Outside history, I will stride to the plate without a new batting stance. That’s right, there’s no high-and-mighty look-at-what-I-made fancy-numbers sabermetric project to spend multiple paragraphs overexplaining here. This is just a good old-fashioned, dirty-uniformed, shut-up-and-play-the-damn-game type of article that doesn’t have to resort to bat flips and flashy chains and overhyphenations to make its point. You came here for a free agent breakdown, and that’s what you’re gonna get.

Now, onto the numbers.

Gleyber Torres

Okay, there’s ONE new feature on the Advanced LASR Hitter Stats dashboard that I’d like to highlight: selecting the stats you’d like to display on the By-Season and Career Stats page.

I added this feature because it’s the ultimate narrative creation tool. Now, instead of having to scroll through all the stats that mean nothing to the story being told and taking multiple screenshots with a mix of relevance and uselessness, I can pick and choose what is displayed and tell the story more efficiently. This allows me to create a handy little collection of stats that all fit on the screen together and tell the story of, say, Gleyber Torres.

Though Torres will only be 28 in the 2025 season, it seems like he has been around forever. He came to New York in 2016 during a rare trade deadline where the Yankees were sellers, when they shipped Aroldis Chapman to the eventual World Series-winning Cubs for a package of prospects headlined by the blue chip 19-year old Torres. He had a strong debut in 2018 and followed that up with an excellent 2019 when he hit 38 home runs as a 22-year old and looked like he’d be getting a $300 million contract someday.

Unfortunately, his stock has dropped since then and his future production looks closer to average than spectacular. Though he started making noticeable improvements in his plate discipline in the shortened 2020 season, his power disappeared in a puff of smoke. This continued in a disappointing 2021 before he bounced back in ‘22 with a slight return to his old ways. The past couple of years, he has balanced cold streaks with hot streaks and has seemingly settled into a contact-oriented approach with less power than he showed as a youngster.

This arc can be seen quite clearly in the stats I’ve chosen to display. In the overview-type stats BB%, Avoid K%, and ISO, we can see his plate discipline and power moving consistently in opposite directions, and these trends persist in the more granular rate stats that follow. It is commonly understood that Barrel% correlates with power (i.e. ISO), that Contact% and SwStr% correlate (in different directions) with avoiding strikeouts, and that O-Swing% (a.k.a. Chase Rate) correlates negatively with drawing walks. Further, since there are many more “events” that stack up in the pitch-by-pitch measurements than the more results-based stats, they are considered to stabilize quicker and have more predictive power. For example, as Torres has improved his contact ability throughout his career, we can see those changes more reliably and steadily in his Contact% increases and his SwStr% decreases than we might in, say, his batting average LASR. Someday, I’d like to conduct my own research to confirm these common understandings, but they seem logical enough that I don’t mind making assumptions for now.

Baseball players are seemingly always tinkering with their approach, trying to find the one tiny alteration that will help them climb up the ladder. Torres appears to still be figuring himself out as a hitter. Whether through intentional decisions or through experience, he has developed an above-average patience and ability to get the bat on the ball. Unfortunately, he was more productive back when his game was more power than contact. It wouldn’t be surprising for development-oriented teams to convince themselves they can help Torres maintain his contact while rediscovering his power. However, they shouldn’t take this as a given; it’s entirely possible the power was never there in the first place and his 38 homers in 2019 were a juiced-ball mirage.

His defense, as shown in the DRS and OAA LASR scores above, is usually below average. Being the top second baseman on the free agent market will help him out, and though he’s less likely to make a position switch, he came up as a shortstop and could explore infield versatility for teams looking to get creative. He will likely get a deal in the 3- or 4-year range, though being one of the youngest free agents available may help him secure a longer deal than he would otherwise command. He’ll probably get something between Jeimer Candelario’s 3-year $45 million free agent contract and Ketel Marte’s 5-year $76 million extension. The Mariners, Royals, Giants, Astros, and others will all likely be checking in on Torres; I think a team looking to prove their willingness to spend some money (but not a lot) will scoop up Torres and hope for the best version of him.

Note: as we did in the previous free agent hitter breakdown, my fiancé Autumn and I will be providing our predictions on the eventual destinations, such as:

Tucker: Mariners

Autumn: Astros

Ha-Seong Kim

Despite his consistent production from a valuable position, Ha-Seong Kim’s contract will be one of the toughest to predict this offseason. He suffered an inopportune shoulder injury in August causing him to miss the last month and a half of 2024, and is now set to miss an undetermined chunk of 2025. The uncertainty of his recovery timeline can be summarized by Padres POBO AJ Preller’s vague answer: “May, June, July...” It is hard to tell whether Kim will shoot for a long-term deal of a lower value than he would have commanded a few months ago, or if he will settle for a short-term pillow contract to prove his health and get the primary payday deal next offseason.

Much of Kim’s value lies in his defense and baserunning. His fielding did take a noticeable step back in 2024, perhaps because he had to reacclimate to shortstop after spending most of 2023 at second base. In the three seasons prior to 2024, his LASR grades in OAA, DRS, FRV, and UZR were all generally in the 55-65 range, but all except OAA (55) dropped to a league-average 50 in 2024. To be clear, an average defensive shortstop is still quite useful, but this decline – alongside the consideration that his shoulder injury is on his throwing arm – may be noted by teams looking to Kim for superb defense.

On the offensive side, Kim has quite a distinct hitter profile, especially in his swing decisions:

This screenshot displays 2024 values only, but a peek at his by-season stats will show that these ratings have been steadily trending toward the extremes seen here. As Kim has spent more time in MLB, he has become more and more selective in his swings, and has consistently gotten better at making contact. As a result, his walk rate has increased and his strikeout rate has decreased, culminating in exceptional 2024 LASR values of 65 and 60 in BB% and Avoid K%, respectively (not seen in the screenshot). By balancing out his relatively low power, this disciplined contact approach has made Kim roughly a league-average hitter, which is nothing to scoff at for a shortstop.

One can’t help but wonder, though, if he might be better served to swing more often. Kim’s Called Strike% (CStr%) LASR of 75 was the highest in MLB in 2024, which – combined with his 65 Zone%, 30 Swing%, and especially his 30 Z-Swing% – suggests that in his quest for walks, he has let too many hittable pitches go by without punishment. Though he isn’t capable of inflicting as much damage as others when he does swing, he is clearly able to make contact at an excellent rate. Since he also has a good sense of the strike zone, he may benefit from slightly expanding his swing selection criteria.

As noted above, Kim’s path through free agency could take several unforeseen twists and turns. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him wait to make his decision until February or so, when he might have a clearer timetable on his return. That decision could be a 1-year prove-it deal (or 2 years with an opt-out) in the $10-15 million AAV range with a competitive team looking to avoid long-term commitments like the Rays, Braves, or Brewers. There could also be a team, like the Yankees, Mets, or Tigers, willing to trust his track record and give him something like the Ketel Marte 5-year $76 million extension mentioned earlier. A return to the Padres appears unlikely as San Diego appears to be under self-induced financial limitations, but AJ Preller has never been predictable. Shortstop is a position of immense value, and with Kim the second-best SS on the free agent market (behind Willy Adames), he could land a sizable contract despite his question marks.

Tucker: Rays

Autumn: Braves

Christian Walker

Entering spring training in 2017, Christian Walker was a 25-year old first baseman with 31 career MLB plate appearances who had run out of minor league options. Ahead of him on Baltimore’s depth charts was Chris Davis and the colossal contract that was about to turn into the giant pumpkin that necessitated the Orioles’ rebuild. With Walker looking like nothing special, the Orioles placed him on waivers and he was picked up by the Braves. A couple weeks later, the Braves did the same thing and Walker went to the Reds. Finally, near the end of spring training, the Diamondbacks scooped him up on his 26th birthday – and though they also placed him on waivers, this time nobody else wanted him. After jumping around between 4 teams in about a month, Walker’s Waiver Wandering had completed.

Even if he had broken out that season, he would have been considered a late bloomer. Alas, it took him two additional seasons to squeeze his foot in the door and finally show that he was capable of manning first base for an MLB team. And even then, he didn’t round into true form until 2022 at the age of 31 – when many big leaguers, especially first baseman types, are often on their way out. Instead, Walker has enjoyed three straight productive seasons for the Diamondbacks in 2022-2024, establishing himself as a powerful bat and surprisingly an incredible defender at first base.

Walker is a cookie cutter example of how MLB’s free agency structure favors players who debut at younger ages. If he wasn’t almost 4 years older than Pete Alonso, Walker would be at the top of the first base market. They are similar hitters, both with the ability to send fly balls into the atmosphere, but on defense they are on different planets. Walker’s LASR scores in the 4 major defensive stats have consistently been in the 55-65 range, especially in the last 4 seasons. While impressive glovework is inherently not as important at first base as most other positions, it still matters – and Walker’s effort has definitely been appreciated in Arizona’s rise back into contention.

Offensively, there are no signs pointing to Walker’s demise other than his age and the potential effects of his oblique injury late in the 2024 season. Assuming an offseason of healing ensures that issue is dealt with, Walker should be counted on to provide a satisfactory Three True Outcome approach from the middle of the lineup. As evidenced by his high Z-Swing% and comparatively low O-Swing% LASR grades throughout his career, he knows where the strike zone is, and though his Contact% is below average, he makes up for that by hitting the ball hard and in the air. Furthermore, ever since the humidor was installed at Chase Field in 2018, home runs have been suppressed in Arizona, so Walker may have even more power in the tank that could be unlocked playing at a different home stadium.

Even though he hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down, Walker will still be 34 entering the 2025 season, which will understandably limit his contract’s total guarantee. Teams likely won’t be willing to offer him more than 3 years, but his forecasted production in those 3 years may be similar to Alonso’s, so he could touch the $20-25 million AAV range that Alonso is looking for. Walker will probably be thought of as the consolation prize to the teams that don’t snag the Polar Bear, so the suitors will consist primarily of the same teams in Alonso’s market: the Yankees, Mets, Nationals, Tigers, and Walker’s incumbent Diamondbacks.

Tucker: Yankees

Autumn: Diamondbacks

Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Santander, and Tyler O’Neill

To round out the top 10 free agent hitters, I’m going to showcase another previously-unmentioned feature of LASR: the ability to select multiple players and easily compare their ratings. Though this has been possible with the LASR project since it was first published, this is my first reference to it. On any slide with a player search tool (including the bar graph slides), you can search and select multiple players at once. Combined with the Season filter tool and the stat display filter mentioned earlier, I have created the following screenshot that compares selected 2021-2024 LASR stats for three outfield sluggers: Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez, and Tyler O’Neill.

These three are similar players whose markets will overlap considerably. Pure power is their calling card, and after they all had strong seasons in 2024, that will be enough to entice teams in their pursuits of corner outfield production. However, they all have deficiencies that will limit their earning potential.

Santander had an excellent walk year as he smacked 44 homers, which among switch hitters put him behind only Mickey Mantle, Lance Berkman, and Chipper Jones in single-season home runs all-time. His Launch Angle LASR score of 75 was tops in MLB, and his ISO of 70 put him on a level behind only Shohei Ohtani (80) and Aaron Judge (90 (yes, really)). Even with this immense power and focus on putting the ball in the air, he didn’t strike out as much as you’d expect, and his Whiff Rate (labeled SwStr% above) was impressively below league average. He doesn’t walk much for a power guy, but his low OBP this year could at least partially be attributed to his shockingly low BABIP, which was lowest in MLB among qualified batters. While he shouldn’t ever be expected to have a high BABIP due to his slow speed, he was undoubtedly the recipient of poor batted ball luck and may split up more fielders in the future.

Hernandez took a 1-year prove-it deal with the Dodgers last offseason after a disappointing 2023 in Seattle, and he certainly made the most of it. The power he had shown in Toronto returned in LA as he proved he’s still a powerful middle-of-the-order bat to be feared. He also increased his national recognition by winning the Home Run Derby and being a key contributor in the Dodgers’ World Series championship, which shouldn’t affect how teams value him compared to last offseason but very well might. His Chase Rate and Whiff Rate (O-Swing% and SwStr%, respectively) have historically been poor, but he made steps in the right direction in 2024. As a result, he walked at his highest clip in years, helping boost his OBP LASR grade to an above-average 55 for the first time in his career.

O’Neill also enjoyed a bounceback season of sorts with the Red Sox, though many of his past demons were still present. After an incredible 2021 in St. Louis, he suffered through 2 injury-plagued seasons and was sold low to Boston last offseason. Though he didn’t quite return to his 2021 level, he handily showed the world that his muscles remained intact. His ISO of 70 was on the same elite tier as Santander, Juan Soto, Brent Rooker, and Ketel Marte, and was even higher than it was in 2021. His Launch Angle, Barrel%, and Pull% were all significantly above average in the 65-70 range, a tailor-made approach for Fenway Park – which was proved by his several titanic blasts over the Green Monster. He has also generally been the best baserunner and fielder among this trio throughout their careers.

Now, onto the bad news. Though Santander’s OBP may improve with a better BABIP, he has gotten on base at a below average clip for his entire career. He is also slow and a poor defender who may wind up as a DH on the tail end of his contract. Hernandez is 2 years older than the others and the length of his contract will be reflected in that. He hits grounders at a surprisingly high rate for such a power hitter, and his proneness to strikeouts should not be overlooked. O’Neill can be electric at times, but at other times his bat freezes over and the strikeouts come in bunches. His injury history, of course, is his largest question mark; he has only been a qualified hitter once in his career, and even in his successful 2024 he took multiple trips to the Injured List.

These three will fill similar holes in competitors’ lineups, but they each come with their own sacrifices and risks. All but one of the teams attempting to empty their pockets into Juan Soto’s hands will miss out and will turn to Santander, Hernandez, or O’Neill as a solid backup plan, including the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Dodgers. Of course, other teams looking for outfield help who have priced themselves out of the Soto sweepstakes could already be focusing on this second outfield tier. This group includes the Tigers, Reds, Royals, Giants, and Phillies. They should all get something around 2-4 year deals worth $15-20 AAV, with Santander likely coming out on top, followed by Hernandez, then O’Neill – though it wouldn’t be surprising to see Santander and Hernandez swap spots there.

Santander:

Tucker: Yankees

Autumn: Giants

Hernandez:

Tucker: Tigers

Autumn: Red Sox

O’Neill:

Tucker: Reds

Autumn: Red Sox

Next, I will grab a rosin bag and put my toe on the pitching rubber. I am in the process of adding an Advanced LASR Pitcher Stats project to my Tableau, and will theoretically use that to analyze the top free agent pitchers. At this point, with the Winter Meetings taking place next week and Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi already signed, those analyses might be more “Here’s what this team should expect from their acquisition” rather than “Here’s a free agent any team could still sign,” but I think both are useful. As always, I encourage you to continue playing around with the LASR Tableau stories, and let me know if you have any questions!